Belated 2011 Predictions

Many bloggers spend late December and early January making predictions for the new year.  It's a time-honored tradition that creates filler topics for next year's holiday season about how badly our predictions fared.  (If we were good at this sort of thing, we'd be placing our bets on MMO company stocks instead of posting them.)  A few of us have even moved beyond predictions - a nefarious character known to Wordpress only as Wilhelm2451 issued a series of demands to MMO studios earlier this month.  

Personally, I haven't done predictions in the past, saving my comically inaccurate guesses for Blizzcon.  This year, though, a few things I've read and heard in OTHER peoples' predictions have convinced me to write a few of my own.

Surprise new MMO announcement
MMO Reporter's prediction episode had a category for announcements of new MMO's, but the round table somehow missed a big possibility: the rumored Turbine Harry Potter MMO.

Now that the MMO studio is owned by the movie studio responsible for releasing the final film this year, I don't see any way that this project - if it exists - stays un-announced.  Even if J.K. Rowling eventually decides to break down and write more books, I doubt that the hype on this series will ever get back to where it will be as the final film of the original series hits theaters.  Announcing this project - which some conspiracy theorists suggest is why WB decided they wanted to own Turbine in the first place - would naturally benefit from the film's advertising campaign.  Announcing it in 2012 or beyond will have a feeling that it's old news.

Incidentally, with respect to Turbine's accomplishments, I'm not sure that this particular IP is well suited to "kill 10 death-eater" quests.  If I were choosing a current MMO to copy paste Harry Potter into, I'd go with Eve.  Restrictions on the use of magic, especially where muggles can see, could mirror Eve's high/low security divide nicely, and it's not like there's a shortage of potential factions for players at Hogwarts.

Free to play switchovers and shutdowns
Syp asks which MMO will go free to play and which will shut down this year.  In the comments, STO is the leading contender for the former, and Vanguard has a decent number of votes for the latter.

STO is an obvious candidate for F2P because the backend is already built for Champions.  On top of that, so many people EXPECT the game to go F2P that it's current state of NOT being F2P may actually be harming it, as people wait for the switch to happen.  If I had to bet money on this question, I guess it's hard to argue with that logic.

Then again, STO is widely regarded as more successful than CO, which means it has more to lose if existing subscribers find a way to play for less on the cash shop model.  If Cryptic makes the popular weekly "episodes" into DDO-style cash shop purchases, this could very easily happen.  I don't see a good way for this particular game to go F2P right now, though that hasn't stopped others from making the same jump.

As to Vanguard shutting down, I'm even more puzzled by that assertion.  It costs comparatively little to keep a single server running, and it isn't a licensed IP that costs Sony additional money (like Matrix Online, the major SOE game to be axed so far).  I could see the game going without any updates, and sadly I can't see the game going free to play this year (unfortunate, because I'd be interested in trying it, but not for its current price in the same tier with WoW, EQ2, Rift, et al), but I predict that Vanguard will survive 2011. 

WoW going forward
My tongue in cheek public quest reaction aside, Tobold's unambitious WoW expansion predictions deserve attention based on his track record.

I don't think that public quests as implemented in Warhammer and Rift (and rumored for EQ2) are a direction Blizzard wants to go in.  Players complain about how no one spends time in the open world anymore, but players complain even more when something like Wintergrasp actually happens in the open world, bringing enough players into one location to crash the servers.  Everything that Blizzard has done since 2008 suggests that they're NOT looking to invite this kind of strain on their hardware.

Though PQ's can make the outside world more populated, the real selling point to the system is to offer the same group play experience typically found in dungeons, but without the logistical hassles or time commitment of traditional group play.  If queue times are manageable, the dungeon finder accomplishes these goals

As to the second half of 2012, that's another conservative bet that will probably pay off, though I wouldn't be shocked to see it come out earlier, perhaps as soon as May 2012 (which I guess is almost "second half") if they do stick to their plan of releasing only two content patches for Cataclysm. There's not much point in going to the effort of making heroic dungeons more difficult if they're going to be trivial for a year or more between patch 4.1 and the next expansion. 

Either way, I predict an expansion announcement at Blizzcon 2011 (they basically confirmed that they will hold one every year, major announcements or not), with no more than five additional levels (why go to so much trouble to reduce the talent trees only to add more points?).  Just to make extra sure I'm wrong, I'll predict that Nozdormu and the Infinite Dragonflight will be the major villians of the expansion.  There will be minor changes to Outland and Northrend to indicate that characters are now actually traveling to the past to prevent the Infinite Flight from altering the campaigns against Illidan and Arthas (nowhere near on the scale of the Cataclysm revamps).  

Cheating horribly to improve my accuracy rating
DCUO will release as scheduled on January 11th, 2011.  In other news, at least one thing that I've written in this post on January 14th will actually have occurred in 2011. :)

Details of WoW's Public Quests

Tobold predicts that WoW will get public quests in its next expansion, sometime in the second half of 2012.  Here are some details about Blizzard's implementation of PQ's:
  • The system has been in development since at least 2009, and perhaps was started in response to the original PQ system in Warhammer at its 2008 release.  
  • The system will feature an incentive structure that rewards players for teaming up to tackle scripted content that cannot be soloed.  Similar to Warhammer's "influence" system, every mob killed will award progress towards some rewards, which are handed out to anyone who accumulates a high enough "influence" score.  The most desired items will only be awarded if the group successfully completes the PQ, and only to the player(s) who wins the "vegas style" roll. 
  • Players will not need to manually invite others to their group, the system will handle that for them.  
  • The system will allow players to teleport to the PQ area, so that travel time is minimized.  
  • To ensure that players earn their rewards by facing appropriate difficulty, rather than zerging down the content with too many people, the system will cap groups at five players.  
  • The big issue that Blizzard is struggling with is class distribution.  A previous version of the system was highly popular but a bit too easy.  In the iteration of the system that Blizzard is currently testing, high difficulty is leaving tanks and healers reluctant to risk wasting time trying to complete PQ's in PUGs.  This leaves DPS waiting for an hour or more before there is room for them in a PQ group.  
PVD can confirm that Blizzard's top secret answer to the public quest has the code name "dungeon finder".  Blizzard appears to have screwed up their legendary secrecy, as an internal post by lead systems designer Greg "Ghostcrawler" Street describing the current testing woes was accidentally posted on the official WoW blog this week. 

Cataclysm Old World Leveling Paths

One of the things that I've been wondering about was how many new alts it would take to see all the content of the revised old world in Cataclysm.  Having covered the newbie zones of Cataclysm, here's a listing and commentary on the zones of the revised old world (from 10-60). 

Overall, pretty much every zone has at least one new flight path.  With a few exceptions, the plan is for you to spend five levels in each zone.  You'll typically have 2-4 choices for any given level range.  In most cases, you can move on to the next zone a level early - if you find yourself several levels ahead of the curve as you finish an area, you can probably run a dungeon or two with the dungeon finder and then skip a zone to move on to the next five level tier.  Here's the rundown, based in part on the list of Horde and Alliance breadcrumb quests.


Levels 10-20
Alliance: Westfall/Redridge (humans), Darkshore (NE and Worgen), Loch Modan (Dwarves, Gnomes), and Bloodmyst (Draenei, presumably unchanged from TBC)
Horde: North Barrens (Orcs, Trolls, Tauren), Azshara (Goblins), Silverpine (Undead), and Ghostlands (Blood Elves, presumably unchanged from TBC)

The quirk with this level range is that you might be starting as early as level 9 (if you ditch the newbie zone the moment you qualify for the breadcrumb quest) or as late as level 13 (which I hit on some characters with rest exp, heirlooms, and exp for harvesting).  I find it interesting that the six non-TBC zones got some of the biggest and most dramatic geographic revisions of the Cataclysm.  Perhaps Blizzard decided that they had to show veterans changes early and often if they want them to stick with new alts to level 20? 

Levels 20-25
Ashenvale (both factions), Wetlands (Alliance), Duskwood (Alliance), Hillsbrad (Horde)

Though these zones are considered "contested" territory on PVP servers, the contest has been won in all but Ashenvale; the remaining three zones only offer quests for the closest side.  (From here on out, everyone shares all the zones.)  It's kind of unfortunate that the Horde bottlenecks into literally two choices so early in the level progression. 

I've actually done Duskwood on an old Discipline Priest alt.  All of the major plots from 2004 remain in the zone, they've just moved so that you don't have to run back and forth across the zone repeatedly.  

Levels 25-30
Stonetalon, Arathi, and North Stranglethorn Vale

I'm kind of looking forward to NSTV because I hear that there are quests in the former raid area of Zul'Gurub.  Otherwise, I can't say that any of these really interest me.

Levels 30-35
Desolace, Hinterlands, South Barrens, Cape of Stranglethorn (South STV)

This is the only range between 20-60 with four zone - more on this below.  The Alliance breadcrumb quest for South Barrens is a bit weird, in that there's no flight path or boat - you have to run/swim from either Ratchet or Theramore.  You'd think they could have chartered something for the occasion, given that the NPC is standing on what appears to be a dock. 

Levels 35-40
Ferelas, West Plaguelands, Dustwallow
 
WPL was just about the first place I went to visit when 4.03 went live.  The geography has not changed, but the zone has a completely re-written plot, many areas that are no longer plagued, and a variety of solo quests pitting players against the bosses of the Scholomance instance.

Levels 40-45
Thousand Needles, East Plaguelands

Here's another unfortunate level range with only two options.  Worse, IMO one of the options is way better than the other.

The Scourge-mopup operation in EPL is not as far along as the effort in WPL, so the zone looks very similar to how it did previously.  Also, this area probably holds the record for most flight paths in a single zone, since ALL of the former world PVP towers get their own neutral flight points. 

Meanwhile, TN was once a canyon and is now completely underwater.  Can't say this is going to be a very hard choice. 

Levels 45-50
Tanaris, Felwood, Badlands (45-47) + Searing Gorge (47-50)

Blizzard opted to deal with some of the sparser zones of the Central Eastern Kingdoms by having them span narrower level ranges.  The Badlands is supposedly amusing.

Levels 50-55
Un'goro, Winterspring, Burning Steppes (50-52) + Swamp of Sorrows (52-55)

This is another range that I'm just not that excited to see.  The geography is pretty much the same as it was, and there aren't any major changes in the balance of power (like, say, the Forsaken conquering Southshore). 

Levels 55-60 (or 58)
Silithus, Blasted Lands

There's only two options here, but you do have the option of moving on to Outland and the unchanged TBC content at 58 if you don't hate that entire expansion.  Also, you now get hit with a 90% exp penalty for mob kills once you exceed that expansion's level cap (60 in this case), and you can unlock flying mounts (usable in Azeroth if you have the Cataclysm expansion - note that everything else in this post is 100% available to players who do not own Cataclysm). 

I'm definitely more interested in the Blasted Lands, which got bumped up by 10 levels (while WPL and EPL got bumped down with the demise of Arthas) so that players can actually be standing at the Dark Portal when they reach the appropriate level.

A math error at Blizzard?
Loosely speaking, you're looking at two core paths that get you from level 25-60 using roughly adjacent zones: 
  • Kalimdor: Stonetalon, Desolace, Ferelas, Thousand Needles, Tanaris, Ungoro, Silithus
  • Eastern Kingdoms: Arathi, Hinterlands, WPL, EPL, Badlands, Searing Gorge, Burning Steppes, Swamp of Sorrows, Blasted Lands

There are also three little detours:
North+South STV (25-35)
South Barrens+Dustwallow (30-40)
Felwood+Winterspring (45-55)

Looking at it that way, I wonder if Blizzard screwed up the level ranges on South Barrens and Dustwallow; if these zones had instead run from 35-45, there'd be a complete third path from 25-55.  Now, there is instead an inexplicable glut of content from 30-35 and a painful gap from 40-45.  I suppose that you can make up the difference with the dungeon finder (or do the two STV's and then run all of South Barrens and Dustwallow over-level). 

One final note, Wowhead says there are about 2900 quests from levels 20 to 60, and about 900 of those are available to both factions (i.e. neutral questgivers).  This does not account for situations where the two factions have the same quest with different flavor text (and does catch some of the early TBC quests), but it gives you some idea of how much duplication you're going to see if you're playing all the paths on both sides. 

The answer:
So, how many leveling paths are there in the old world revamp?

12 paths to level 5 (2 unchanged from TBC)
10 paths to level 10 (2 unchanged from TBC)
8 paths to level 20 (2 unchanged from TBC)
5 paths to level 25
3-6 paths to level 55 (depending on how you're counting neutral quests)
2-4 paths from 55 to TBC

The odds that I'm going to end up with four new level 60's by the end of Cataclysm aren't great, but I suppose they're not zero either. 

Guide To WoW Cataclysm Newbie Area Revamps

I've finally "finished" my survey of the new level 1-11 content in Cataclysm.  If you're considering rolling up a new race and have no idea which way to go, there's a rundown.

The New (Worgens in Gilneas, Goblins in the Lost Isles)
Cataclysm added new introductory experiences for the new Goblin and Worgen races.  I don't say "new zones" because, like the starting storyline for Death Knights, these stories are ONLY available to newly created characters (who are not allowed into the "real" world until they finish them).  If you like the DK intro, or the linear quest style of the level 80+ zones in Cataclysm, these new areas are not to be missed.  If you dislike the "theme park", well, at least you'll be done in two hours or so? 

Many people like the Goblin story for its sheer uniqueness - there are a lot of vehicles and other gimmicks, along with a storyline that continues into the new Azshara.  For some reason, I wouldn't rate it so highly.  I don't know why - the content is pretty, and the comic relief fits with the personality of the race.  Somehow, it felt like I was spending more time watching travel than I did in other zones, and like almost every quest involved some gizmo from my amazing toolbelt.  Maybe I was just burned out by the time I got to this one (which I saved for last because it got such good reviews).

By contrast, I really enjoyed Gilneas, which I felt captured the feel of an old school werewolf story nicely, while bringing in clear reasons for the Worgen to side with the Alliance against the Horde.

The Abandoned (Eversong for Blood Elves, Azuremyst for Draenei)
It appears that these areas did not get significant attention for the Cataclysm.  Both have new voiceovers explaining what the races have been doing for their respective factions in the four years since TBC.  Azuremyst has at least one new flight point, and Eversong has two.  Unfortunately, it looks like that's where the changes ended.  I didn't see any new content in Eversong, and I gave up on my Draenei when I realized that all the quests were still set in the immediate aftermath of the crash of the Exodar four years ago.  (Sorry, gang, just didn't feel like doing that arc yet again, even for the blog.) 

On the plus side, these areas are both a bit less linear (especially Eversong) precisely because they're older, which I guess is good if you miss that sort of thing.  However, both areas are more isolated than ever now that lowbies from the other races get equal quality loot in their new areas.  The BE still at least have some personality, but the Draenei would have been better off if the Exodar had been destroyed in the Cataclysm so that they could start somewhere else (perhaps Elwynn?).   

The Half-Stories (Trolls in a corner of Durotar, Gnomes in a corner of Dun Morogh)
Both races get their own content from levels 1 through 5-6 before joining their Orc/Dwarf comrades on their leveling paths.  As with most new Cataclysm content, expect significant quality time with NPC voiceovers.  The intended epic feel of these stories is cut short by the abrupt endings; it's hard to build that much accomplishment into a story that ends at level five.  Also, I'm not a huge fan of the zones that either of these feed into.

The Revamps
The remaining six races got a range of updates.  There are limited changes to the geography.  (On the other hand, there appears to have been an conscious effort to Cata-splode all of the level 10-20 zones except for the abandoned TBC areas.)  All zones also got significant travel improvements - at least one new flight path, and often some one-way rides from one hub to the next to save some time running without a mount.  Some of the zones got a more dramatic scripted event as a finale.  The rundown:
  • Durotar (Orcs, later trolls): The level 1-5 section was completely untouched.  The north west chunk of the zone has been partially flooded, and feels poorly paced - you're sent on a long circuit around the area, but it's not clear what quests you need to do first, and I found myself outleveling them (perhaps because I went out of the "correct" order?).  Also, the zone storyline just ends with routine breadcrumbs to The Barrens.
     
  • Dun Morogh (Dwarves, later gnomes): Level 5 characters no longer need to run through the cave of troggs - an NPC gives you an airlift out of the starter valley.  Beyond that, the content seems to have gotten a fair amount of attention, but there's actually too much of it.  They could have easily left out at least one quest camp and still had enough exp to go around.  Instead, there are too many quests and you end up feeling dragged around by the nose as you go somewhere to be told that you only need to kill 6 rats (or whatever) before being sent on.  At least this zone does get a finale event. 

  • Teldrassil (Night Elves): The major change here is that there are no more quests that require players to run all the way back across the zone to talk to the dude by the lake in the far eastern corner.  Your quests will either be turned in near where you did the killing, or at the next hub.  Also, the zone has a finale event.  Considering that this was the most painful zone to start in previously due to insane travel, making it up to average status is a huge improvement.

  • Mulgore (Tauren): The story here is similar, many quests provide one-way travel on to the next location, and the zone got a finale event (before putting you on a flight path to Ogrimmar to hit The Barrens).  I've always loved the look of this zone, and now it's just a bit less painful on the travel.  That said, if you've done this zone before, you're probably going to find it very familiar. 

  • Elwynn Forest (Human): The newbie area has been attacked (and set ablaze) by Blackrock Orcs and Goblins.  I don't know if your average newbie realizes that these guys are NOT the factions in The Horde, but they're certainly more memorable than the previous residents of the area.  Travel time out to the lumber camp on the far east of the zone has been fixed with a much needed new flight path.  The finale is the most epic-est encounter that any level 11 will ever attempt and (possibly) survive. 

    Also, I might have been doing things wrong by trying this on a completely un-twinked warrior (a class that really suffers from outdated weapons), but this was far and away the zone that challenged me the most.  Elwynn seems to have more social mobs than most areas, there's a few areas even a perfect pull brings multiple mobs, and one quest target who has a whopping three helpers in his hut with him. 

  • Tirisfal Glades (Forsaken Undead): Among the existing zones, this was far and away the most dramatic revamp.  All of the lore has been re-written to accommodate the fall of the Lich King.  An additional mini-hub has been added to avoid some previously long travel time.  We get some new supporting characters who will apparently be following us to Silverpine.  Overall, I give this zone the highest marks, both for the improvements and for creating the most compelling storyline - if I had to delete ten of the eleven new characters I created for this exercise, the undead is the one storyline I would choose to continue.

Overall, I'm glad I went on this little project, and I hope that this info is at least somewhat useful to some of you who are considering new alts.  I should have a followup in the next day or so looking at the paths from 10-60 (no, I'm not planning on actually leveling characters through all of them).