MMO-Champion reports that "Mists of Pandaria" is "extremely likely" the next WoW expansion. While some folks are unconvinced, I'm inclined to trust the MMO-Champion track record.
Hindsight is always easier than foresight - my best guess would be nowhere near the mark - but this makes a lot of sense in hindsight. Regardless of the success or failure of Cataclysm's world revamp, which peppered with a few new zones in previously blank areas of map, the more traditional model with a new continent makes sense as a follow-up. If Pandaria does turn out to be located on a previously unknown South Seas island, it is a logical battleground for an invasion by Azshara and the Naga. There are relatively few other combinations of location and antagonist that players have heard of (especially through the Vashj'ir storyline in Cataclysm) and that are not similar to past foes (The Burning Legion again, or yet another Dragon Aspect gone evil).
There are a few obstacles Blizzard has to deal with, if this is the expansion. Panda haters are going to hate, and Panda lovers aren't going to be happy unless the race is playable for both factions, as Rohan suggests, which would be a first. That said, I see no niche for a Brewmaster class, even if Blizzard does want to take the PR hit for marketing drunken cartoon pandas in a game that kids play, which might mean no new class. WoW expansions have always included either new races or a new class, and Blizzard had previously suggested that two new races every expansion would be tough due to art requirements. One new, neutral race mitigates that concern by halving the art requirements, even if two panda factions require Alliance and Horde colors.
There's also the issue of China, which was rumored to have prompted the removal of the Pandaren as the Alliance race for the 2007 Burning Crusade expansion. Six months ago, I would have guessed that Blizzard no longer cared about China due to the likelihood that the government would refuse to approve the next expansion no matter what its contents. However, after a rocky period that saw WoW China shut down outright and the Wrath expansion delayed by nearly two years, Blizzard seems to have finally mended relations; Cataclysm reportedly hit China a mere seven months late. I don't have a good answer for this question, other than that Blizzard apparently thinks they can do something involving Pandaren - perhaps the Chinese version of the expansion will have all the Pandas find-replaced with Worgen?
In the end, my guess is that Pandas, much like EQ2 Beastlords, will arrive because people want to see them. Yes, some people will argue that this is WoW jumping the shark, but others have been asking for the Pandaren at every Blizzcon since the first. By the time you're talking about a seven year old MMO, your target audience really should be your current playerbase. Very few players who have stuck with the game through Cataclysm are going to walk off because they think Pandaren are a joke, while players who have already made the decision to leave are free to mock the move as validating their departure. Sounds like as good a choice as Blizzard could make under the circumstances.
A Visit To Tatooine
I recently had the opportunity to take that Star Wars MMO people are talking about for a spin. Though I can't say that this was anywhere near the top of my priorities list, I decided to bite - it was a limited time offer that not a lot of people will get.
There were something like eight character classes to choose from, but I didn't have that much trouble picking one given that this was not a character that is going to be around forever. With respect to everyone who gets excited about Bounty Hunters, Smugglers, and Stormtrooper-equivalents (seriously?), if I'm going to spend an hour in a Star Wars MMO, I'm going to pick Jedi. A couple appearance customization choices later and Farwel Stawag (Farewell Star Wars Galaxies - see what I did with those links?), an Ithorian Jedi, was ready to zone in.
I've never played SWG before, and I don't expect that I ever would have, were it not for the coincidence of upgrading to a Station Pass shortly before the game's final billing cycle. As it was, I figured it was worth an hour of my time to take a quick look at the game before Lucas pulls the plug, if for no other reason than in case I decide I'd like to tourist the game's final world (galaxy?) events.
I'm never going to know what this game was like before its notorious "New Game Experience", or even what it is now for those who still invest time in a product that is slated to come down in a few months. Based on my early impressions, though, I can say that this is not the Star Wars MMO I would have been looking for if I was in the market for one.
Many details, including races, lore NPC's, music, and even the opening text crawl, are right out of the films. Unfortunately, the feel of the game is about what NGE critics have always said - an attempt to retrofit a more action-based combat system onto a game that was not designed for it. Tacking on a few quests to kill 10 Tusken Raiders does not bring this game up to par for what I'd expect of a modern quest-based solo MMO. When I hear about what the game was before, it seems like a big price for SOE to exact from the players of that era for a revamp that would have faced an uphill battle even if the effort wasn't best known for driving the game's most dedicated fans away in dramatic fashion.
My Jedi gained a few levels on the NGE's introductory space station, helpfully populated with lore NPC's and generic kill quests. By level seven, I could throw my stick or knife (apparently handing out lightsabers to new Jedi is a line that even the NGE would not cross) and fire off force lightning. In a game like WoW, this progression would have been fine. In a world that is specifically set prior to The Empire Strikes Back, it seems weird to see Jedi of all shapes and sizes firing off force attacks every which way. I suppose I should be grateful for the lack of lightsaber - I find the concept of whacking something with a blade of pure energy that can cut through anything and only doing 20 damage pretty darned stupid looking, whether or not they got the sound effect right.
By far the more interesting part of my visit to the game came when I finally zoned off of the starbase and onto Tatooine. There, I saw players with familiar vehicles and gear, going about their lives amongst NPC Jawas and Tusken Raiders. Personally, I was a bit lost, since the highly structured introduction does very little to prepare the player for the wide range of crafting, factions, and other things that await in the game's real universe. Even so, I have to tip my cap - this part of the experience was actually different from what other MMO's offer.
(Aside: To the extent that this was not the Star Wars MMO I am (or am not) looking for, is whether TOR will be. On one hand, I can definitely appreciate the concept of effective use of a license; Rift put a lot of effort into their original world, but I may actually have a better idea of what my level 7 Ithorian Jedi with an hour of play time is like than my level 40 High Elf with many more hours under her belt. That said, I remain skeptical primarily because I didn't enjoy the gameplay in Dragon Age, and nothing I've heard from people who have actually played TOR (as opposed to watching promo videos) reassures me that TOR will be different.)
Regardless of what happens with TOR, the MMO community is losing a unique experience when SWG closes its doors in December. Though this game is not something I was interested in, right down to the end, I still offer it a sad final salute. No one wins when an MMO closes down, especially when even its revised state is still somewhat unique in the current market. Moreover, SWG's continuing community demonstrates that some folks who have weathered all of this game's trials are definitely going to miss it when it's gone, and that's a day that none of us are eager to face.
There were something like eight character classes to choose from, but I didn't have that much trouble picking one given that this was not a character that is going to be around forever. With respect to everyone who gets excited about Bounty Hunters, Smugglers, and Stormtrooper-equivalents (seriously?), if I'm going to spend an hour in a Star Wars MMO, I'm going to pick Jedi. A couple appearance customization choices later and Farwel Stawag (Farewell Star Wars Galaxies - see what I did with those links?), an Ithorian Jedi, was ready to zone in.
 |
| An eye trunk, my Jedi has. |
I'm never going to know what this game was like before its notorious "New Game Experience", or even what it is now for those who still invest time in a product that is slated to come down in a few months. Based on my early impressions, though, I can say that this is not the Star Wars MMO I would have been looking for if I was in the market for one.
 | |
| Why narrate the intro, when you have the Star Wars slanty text license? |
My Jedi gained a few levels on the NGE's introductory space station, helpfully populated with lore NPC's and generic kill quests. By level seven, I could throw my stick or knife (apparently handing out lightsabers to new Jedi is a line that even the NGE would not cross) and fire off force lightning. In a game like WoW, this progression would have been fine. In a world that is specifically set prior to The Empire Strikes Back, it seems weird to see Jedi of all shapes and sizes firing off force attacks every which way. I suppose I should be grateful for the lack of lightsaber - I find the concept of whacking something with a blade of pure energy that can cut through anything and only doing 20 damage pretty darned stupid looking, whether or not they got the sound effect right.
By far the more interesting part of my visit to the game came when I finally zoned off of the starbase and onto Tatooine. There, I saw players with familiar vehicles and gear, going about their lives amongst NPC Jawas and Tusken Raiders. Personally, I was a bit lost, since the highly structured introduction does very little to prepare the player for the wide range of crafting, factions, and other things that await in the game's real universe. Even so, I have to tip my cap - this part of the experience was actually different from what other MMO's offer.
(Aside: To the extent that this was not the Star Wars MMO I am (or am not) looking for, is whether TOR will be. On one hand, I can definitely appreciate the concept of effective use of a license; Rift put a lot of effort into their original world, but I may actually have a better idea of what my level 7 Ithorian Jedi with an hour of play time is like than my level 40 High Elf with many more hours under her belt. That said, I remain skeptical primarily because I didn't enjoy the gameplay in Dragon Age, and nothing I've heard from people who have actually played TOR (as opposed to watching promo videos) reassures me that TOR will be different.)
Regardless of what happens with TOR, the MMO community is losing a unique experience when SWG closes its doors in December. Though this game is not something I was interested in, right down to the end, I still offer it a sad final salute. No one wins when an MMO closes down, especially when even its revised state is still somewhat unique in the current market. Moreover, SWG's continuing community demonstrates that some folks who have weathered all of this game's trials are definitely going to miss it when it's gone, and that's a day that none of us are eager to face.
 |
| When riding off into the sunset, who needs a mount when you can have a speeder? It hopefully does not smell worse on the inside. |
ROM Gear Lessons For Diablo III's Auction House
Much of the discussion of Blizzard's controversial decision to allow player-to-player item sales for real money in Diablo III has focused on the tired "pay to win" argument. Like Ferrel, Keen, Rohan, and others, I'm not so interested in this side of the equation because how other players obtain their gear does not affect me directly. I'm more concerned about the indirect effects of putting the developer in the business of making money when players replace their gear.
Runes of Magic Gear Upgrades
The best example from my current experience is Runes of Magic and its cash store gear upgrades. While both models do allow players to get what they want in-game with some (possibly prohibitive) amount of time investment, I would argue that the presence of gear boosts in the cash shop means that Runewaker/Frogster see more revenue specifically when new gear is added to the game, much as DIII's auction fees will almost certainly provide more revenue for Blizzard when new gear is added to the game. Any MMO expects to make money off of new content somehow (box sales, renewed subscriptions, item shops), but this approach biases the payment model towards additions that replace players' gear.
If you look at ROM's content history, you'd see what my model predicts - compared to traditional subscription games, the ROM level cap has increased far more frequently, but with fewer additional levels at each increase, allowing players to park and farm up new gear at each new level range before the cap rises again. There are benefits to this model - players get content more frequently, and all of the new content gets used while it is the current level cap, where games that raise the cap by 10 levels at a time often end up with underutilized content in the middle of that level range. However, you also see insane vertical progression, with all the problems that this entails - my level 53 Druid has fewer than 3,000 HP in solo gear, while the Druid Encyclopedia recommends 5K-15K for dungeons in my level range.
Moreover, you will also see dramatic swings in relative class balance. The recently concluded Chapter 3 era saw Scouts topping the DPS charts by as much as 3-fold, while the talk in Chapter 4 is that Rogues are the new scouts, just as the game added a third class slot to let those disgruntled Scouts take up Rogue-ing. Every game has class balance issues and flavor of the month builds. Not every game makes more money when players replace their gear, and nothing makes ROM players replace their gear faster than changing archetypes outright.
The Post DIII Era
Bobby Kotick's comments about exploiting his franchises aside, I don't expect that Blizzard would take this in a direction that immediately ruins a flagship product. You can't sell virtual goods to people who aren't playing your game, and a game that's balanced assuming that players are fully decked out in the rarest of the low drop rate gear from the cash auction house will drive players away. We can probably expect extremely rare items powerful enough to affect game balance, especially on higher difficulty levels, but that was a feature of the original game anyway.
If anything, I think a fair number of would-be-Gevlons will waste a lot of time and real world money on posting fees - and, gods help them, attempts to buy low and sell high - as demand to get real cash for DIII loot outstrips willingness to pay real cash for all but the rarest of DIII loot. That said, I think the longterm effects of having publishers demand the revenue from this feature will only worsen the vertical progression issues that are already causing huge problems in MMO's.
Also, as Stabs points out, the legal implications are potentially staggering. Can you sue a ninja looter? How long before someone decides to test the EULA in court by suing Blizzard for a nerf or server crash that cost them real money? Can Blizzard flag accounts to ensure that the rare drops go to people with a proven history of selling them, rather than keeping the loot and depriving Blizzard of their auction fees on an item that might not drop again for weeks? Would they have to disclose it if they do so? Is this system effectively online poker with the killing of monsters substituted for the random drawing of cards?
Though I don't think that pay to win is the direct problem, I think Scott Jennings is right when he says that this will take games in a direction that is bad for players, but that we've already lost the battle against it because the market will tolerate the new model. It's not the apocalypse, but it's also not a good day for online gaming.
Runes of Magic Gear Upgrades
The best example from my current experience is Runes of Magic and its cash store gear upgrades. While both models do allow players to get what they want in-game with some (possibly prohibitive) amount of time investment, I would argue that the presence of gear boosts in the cash shop means that Runewaker/Frogster see more revenue specifically when new gear is added to the game, much as DIII's auction fees will almost certainly provide more revenue for Blizzard when new gear is added to the game. Any MMO expects to make money off of new content somehow (box sales, renewed subscriptions, item shops), but this approach biases the payment model towards additions that replace players' gear.
If you look at ROM's content history, you'd see what my model predicts - compared to traditional subscription games, the ROM level cap has increased far more frequently, but with fewer additional levels at each increase, allowing players to park and farm up new gear at each new level range before the cap rises again. There are benefits to this model - players get content more frequently, and all of the new content gets used while it is the current level cap, where games that raise the cap by 10 levels at a time often end up with underutilized content in the middle of that level range. However, you also see insane vertical progression, with all the problems that this entails - my level 53 Druid has fewer than 3,000 HP in solo gear, while the Druid Encyclopedia recommends 5K-15K for dungeons in my level range.
Moreover, you will also see dramatic swings in relative class balance. The recently concluded Chapter 3 era saw Scouts topping the DPS charts by as much as 3-fold, while the talk in Chapter 4 is that Rogues are the new scouts, just as the game added a third class slot to let those disgruntled Scouts take up Rogue-ing. Every game has class balance issues and flavor of the month builds. Not every game makes more money when players replace their gear, and nothing makes ROM players replace their gear faster than changing archetypes outright.
The Post DIII Era
Bobby Kotick's comments about exploiting his franchises aside, I don't expect that Blizzard would take this in a direction that immediately ruins a flagship product. You can't sell virtual goods to people who aren't playing your game, and a game that's balanced assuming that players are fully decked out in the rarest of the low drop rate gear from the cash auction house will drive players away. We can probably expect extremely rare items powerful enough to affect game balance, especially on higher difficulty levels, but that was a feature of the original game anyway.
If anything, I think a fair number of would-be-Gevlons will waste a lot of time and real world money on posting fees - and, gods help them, attempts to buy low and sell high - as demand to get real cash for DIII loot outstrips willingness to pay real cash for all but the rarest of DIII loot. That said, I think the longterm effects of having publishers demand the revenue from this feature will only worsen the vertical progression issues that are already causing huge problems in MMO's.
Also, as Stabs points out, the legal implications are potentially staggering. Can you sue a ninja looter? How long before someone decides to test the EULA in court by suing Blizzard for a nerf or server crash that cost them real money? Can Blizzard flag accounts to ensure that the rare drops go to people with a proven history of selling them, rather than keeping the loot and depriving Blizzard of their auction fees on an item that might not drop again for weeks? Would they have to disclose it if they do so? Is this system effectively online poker with the killing of monsters substituted for the random drawing of cards?
Though I don't think that pay to win is the direct problem, I think Scott Jennings is right when he says that this will take games in a direction that is bad for players, but that we've already lost the battle against it because the market will tolerate the new model. It's not the apocalypse, but it's also not a good day for online gaming.
When Stealth Doesn't Pay
Like many games, EQ2 has a dungeon armor currency. Unlike some of those games, solo players can do a daily quest to obtain a shard per day - a reasonably generous offer given that prices on tier 2 dungeon armor have been slashed to a mere 20 shards per (if you have the requisite gem to have it crafted).
In an attempt to try and provide some variety in the quest, there are actually three separate variants, all of which involve sneaking into a keep full of giants and generally messing with them. The Rambo approach, in which you kill everything, gets you the promised shard, but there's a bonus (50 gold) for not killing the generic guards and an additional bonus (a gem worth 500 rep to the current expansion faction of your choice) for completing the quest without aggroing any of the generic guards.
It's a good concept, but the execution is a bit flawed. There are several ways to lure guards into other rooms, but certain random combinations of objectives can force you to summon guards into a room where you're going to need to sneak later on. More to the point, the quest goes much more quickly if you disregard the optional objective not to be seen, because you can aggro mobs and run until they leash (preserving your 50 g bonus). The difference is so great - especially if you get an unfortunate combination of objectives - that it's rarely worth taking the extra time. If you need the rep, you can almost always get it faster by questing for that faction.
Guess this is the catch when you try and make things more interesting for players?
It's a good concept, but the execution is a bit flawed. There are several ways to lure guards into other rooms, but certain random combinations of objectives can force you to summon guards into a room where you're going to need to sneak later on. More to the point, the quest goes much more quickly if you disregard the optional objective not to be seen, because you can aggro mobs and run until they leash (preserving your 50 g bonus). The difference is so great - especially if you get an unfortunate combination of objectives - that it's rarely worth taking the extra time. If you need the rep, you can almost always get it faster by questing for that faction.
Guess this is the catch when you try and make things more interesting for players?
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